Third Quarter Prices Rise: A Look at the Q3 2016 Land Market in Texas

Chart showing Texas land values in Q3 2016

By the end of the third quarter, Texas land markets had shaken off the drag inspired by low oil prices and challenging returns to agriculture to post a 4.6 percent increase over 2015 prices. At $2,554 per acre, 2016 markets saw prices reach historically high levels statewide. That third quarter increase indicated market trends moved up from levels recorded in the first two quarters. The statewide typical size expanded to 1,441, nearly 280 acres larger than the 2015 third quarter size. The inflation adjusted price rose to $445 per acre (in 1966 dollars) continuing the market’s record breaking performance .

Pounded by the retreat from the Eagle Ford shale play, South Texas and the Gulf Coast – Brazos Bottom regions saw land prices slip below 2015 levels. Price increases in the West Texas, Northeast Texas, and Austin— Waco—Hill Country regions offset weakness with strong first three-quarter increasing price trends.

As the elections draw to a close, observers see signs an end to oil price turmoil. These developments inspire market participants to anticipate improving conditions while general economic growth hints at continuing demand for Texas rural land.

Chart showing Texas land values in Q3 2016

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  • DR. CHARLES GILLILAND currently holds an appointment as a Research Economist with the Real Estate Center in the Mays School and an appointment as Adjunct Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University. In addition, Dr. Gilliland is Helen and O.N. Mitchell Fellow of Real Estate and a Clinical Professor of Finance teaching real estate investment analysis for the Master of Real Estate program in the Mays School at Texas A&M University.

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